In July 2023, Osprey Flight Solutions began issuing forecasts regarding global activity impacting aviation that has a realistic possibility, is likely or has a near certain likelihood of occurring in the future. Up until the end of 2023, we published a total of 220 forecasts. These included 113 related to social unrest/industrial action, including environmental activism, 48 related to aviation safety events such as volcanic eruptions, storms and other natural disasters, 29 highlighted the potential for increased security at facilities amid heightened political activity, such as national elections, and 27 related to conflict zone activity. Our forecast accuracy through 2023 and into 2024 is 98%.
Outlined below are situations prior to which Osprey issued forecast(s) alerting our clients to the potential activity, providing context and advising of the possible impacts to operations.
Case Study: Gabon
On 24 August 2023, Osprey issued a forecast highlighting that disruption was likely at key sites and airports in Gabon in the subsequent seven days due to a general election in the country on 26 August. The forecast highlighted that electoral irregularities had the potential to result in violent unrest and tensions. Six days later, on 30 August, a suspected coup was reported, with a group of 12 soldiers appearing on national television to state they were annulling the results of the 26 August presidential election and "putting an end to the current regime". Shortly after the television announcement, global media reported gunfire in the capital.
Case Study: Haiti
Throughout 2023, Osprey issued multiple notifications regarding social unrest, gang activity (including kidnappings and shootings) and aviation security issues in Haiti. However, on 27 July, Osprey issued a forecast stating that heightened security was near certain for the next two days at Port-au-Prince's Toussaint Louverture International Airport (MTPP/PAP) due to anti-government protests. The following day, the US embassy in Haiti urged US citizens to leave the country "as soon as possible" due to "armed clashes between gangs and the police and the high threat of violent crime and kidnapping throughout Port-au-Prince" as well as infrastructure challenges.
Case Study: India
On 4 October 2023, Osprey issued a forecast warning of increased security at key sites and airports in India due to the country hosting the International Cricket Council (ICC) Men's Cricket World Cup. The notification highlighted reports of an increased security presence at Rajiv Gandhi International Airport (VOHS/HYD), serving Hyderabad, to ensure the safety of arriving sports teams, particularly that of Pakistan amid longstanding political tensions between the two countries. Media reporting following the event highlighted that Indian airports witnessed a record number of passengers.
Case Study: Armenia/Azerbaijan
On 11 September 2023, Osprey issued a forecast stating that an escalation in armed clashes on the Armenia-Azerbaijan border and in Nagorno-Karabakh was likely during the subsequent six-week period. Eight days later, on 19 September, Osprey issued a critical alert highlighting that the Azerbaijan Ministry of Defence had announced the start of a large-scale “anti-terrorist operation” in Nagorno-Karabakh against the Armenian-aligned Artsakh Defence Army, including precision strikes on Armenian military positions along the border. As a result, Osprey also raised its airspace, country and airport risk ratings for Armenia and Azerbaijan.
Case Study: Israel Anti-Judicial Reform Protests
Through 2023, Osprey issued multiple notifications regarding anti-judicial reform protests in Israel, including a forecast on 23 July highlighting that increased security at key sites and airports was near certain for a period of a week amid planned protests nationwide. The forecast was issued ahead of a parliamentary vote, which prompted marches and protests in Jerusalem and Tel Aviv.
