Since c.0300 UTC on 24 February, Russian military cross border strikes into Ukraine have been reported, with approximately 4,000 cruise and ballistic missiles as well as guided rocket artillery targeting main urban centres outside of Donetsk and Luhansk, including Kyiv, Kharkiv, Dnipro, Lviv, Ivano Frankivsk, Lutsk, Odessa, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia and Mariupol. Airports, airbases and/or military installations with aviation infrastructure in many cities have been targeted.
On 29 March, Russia stated the primary aim of the “Special Military Operation” is to “liberate” the Donbass (Donetsk and Luhansk ), and Russian forces withdrew from areas north of Kyiv. However, Mariupol was taken by Russian forces by late May . The vast majority of the fighting in the south spans from Mykolaiv near Crimea through to the Sea of Azov area and into the Donbass, though Russian military operations in the Kharkiv region are ongoing. Osprey expects the Ukraine war will shift further to the southwest in the months ahead with heavy fighting expected near Zaporizhzhya to Kherson, along the Dnieper River.
Click here to view the latest Situation Update as of 9 August 2022
Map displaying an estimated overview of Russian & Ukrainian SAM system deployments
Previous Updates
View the Situation Update from 1 July 2022,
View the Situation Update from 2 June 2022,
View the Situation Update from 29 April 2022,
View the Situation Update from 14 April 2022,
View the Situation Update from 30 March 2022,
View the Situation Update from 11 March 2022,
View the Situation Update from 8 March 2022,
View the Situation Update from 4 March 2022,
View the Situation Update from 28 February 2022,
View the Situation Update Webinar series from February 2022,
View the Situation Update from 25 February 2022,
View the Situation Update from 18 February 2022,
View the Situation Update from 14 February 2022,
View the Situation Update from 7 February 2022,
View the Situation Update from 10 January 2022,
Additional Information
Read our December 2021 case study on the situation changes,
Read our April 2021 case study assessing the situation.
